As bombs fell on Iran this weekend, Polymarket saw $529 million in trading volume on contracts predicting US strikes. Six newly created accounts netted around $1 million in profit by betting on a February 28 strike, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. The accounts only placed bets on strike timing and purchased shares hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.

Blockchain analysts flagged these patterns as potential insider trading hallmarks, though they remain inconclusive without regulatory oversight. Similar betting patterns emerged around Venezuela's political upheaval and Iran's supreme leader succession. The February 28 contract alone attracted $90 million in trading volume, making it Polymarket's most popular strike date. A January 31 contract drew $42 million in comparison.

The offshore platform operates without CFTC oversight, requiring only crypto wallets for trading. While Polymarket argues its contracts provide valuable geopolitical risk data, critics point to the lack of safeguards against privileged information. The platform has faced mounting scrutiny as prediction markets boom, with Israeli authorities recently filing criminal charges against users who allegedly used classified military intelligence to place bets, earning roughly $150,000.