Polymarket bets on a US-Iran ceasefire have raised alarms over potential insider trading, with eight anonymous accounts placing $70,000 in wagers that experts say suggest access to privileged information. These accounts, created around 21 March, could profit up to $820,000 if a deal is finalized by 31 March. One account, linked to a February strike on Iran, has a history of winning bets, fueling suspicions of coordinated activity. Ben Yorke, a former crypto researcher, noted the bets’ unusual patterns, including wallet-splitting tactics often used to hide large positions or exploit non-public data.

The market’s probability of a ceasefire surged from 6% to 24% in days, with over $21 million now at stake.