A US‑backed ceasefire in the Middle East hung by a thread on Saturday after President Donald Trump dispatched a delegation led by JD Vance, Middle‑East envoy Steve Witkoff and son‑in‑law Jared Kushner to Islamabad. Pakistan had mediated a two‑week truce that included Iran’s pledge to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and an extension of Trump’s deadline to neutralise Tehran’s “civilisation”, to reassure allies.

The fragile pause shattered when Israel struck Lebanon, killing more than 250 civilians and wounding over 700, per Beirut’s civil‑defence agency. Iran warned it would exit the truce if attacks continued, and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called the breach “openly and clearly violated”. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s east‑west oil pipeline to the Red Sea was hit, showing the war’s reach into energy assets.

Investors now weigh heightened geopolitical risk against volatile oil markets; any Iranian pull‑back could choke Hormuz shipments while damage to the Saudi pipeline threatens Red Sea flows. The uncertainty fuels price spikes and prompts hedge funds to reassess exposure to Middle‑East energy assets. The ceasefire’s survival will likely dictate short‑term market sentiment.