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Investing in AI for More Jobs, Less Pay

Bloomberg Markets •
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The good news and bad news about AIWelcome to the Wall Street Week newsletter, bringing you stories of capitalism about things you need to know, but even more things you need to think about. I’m [PERSON_NAME], and this week former IBM CEO [PERSON_NAME] took us through all that AI investment, and Apollo’s [PERSON_NAME] told us why AI may create more jobs, but hurt pay. If you’re not yet a subscriber, sign up here for this newsletter. With Nvidia recently striking a $500 billion partnership with asset managers to finance AI infrastructure, capital investment in artificial intelligence is reaching historic levels.

[PERSON_NAME] ran IBM during the last big technological revolution, and he says that, as CEO, “you start out with goals and milestones and objectives because you don’t have numbers.”But then as things develop, “you actually build your return equations” to meet the hurdle rate for your business. For IBM when he was there, this meant he had to “create a Fortune 50 company every 14 months” — and he was seeking that return on much lower annual investments. Coming up with those kinds of returns requires a very large growth in revenue each year. And for AI companies, that’s before they get to the challenge of Chinese models threatening to undercut the US AI companies’ prices.

Fear of what AI could mean for the workforce has led to a good deal of analysis based on theory. But now we have some data showing how employers are actually using things like [ADDRESS] and what it’s meant for their employment practices. [PERSON_NAME] of Apollo teamed up with a colleague to present a paper based on these data. In a nutshell, they found that for jobs “highly exposed to AI, they are seeing weaker wage growth, but the employment effect on everyone is insignificant.”Getting lower raises may not be ideal, even if we do get to keep our jobs. But [PERSON_NAME] says there’s more good news, as AI (at least so far) is also leading to more new companies, which should add to demand for workers. Explore all Bloomberg newsletters.