Wall Street strategists are divided over whether US bond yields will fall by year-end or keep climbing. Some, like Goldman Sachs' William Marshall, maintain bullish calls, arguing inflation and debt concerns may have run too far, setting up a potential rally. Others, including Anshul Pradhan, head of US rates research at Barclays Capital, expect yields to keep rising and remain elevated. The market outlook is clouded by factors such as the energy-price shock from the Iran war, the Federal Reserve's rate hike pivot, and the AI boom fueling economic activity. On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.36%, and the 30-year rate surpassed 5.7%, levels not seen since 2002. Strategists from major banks—including Mark Cabana at Bank of America Corp., Matthew Raskin at Deutsche Bank AG, and Jay Barry at JPMorgan Chase & Co.—are weighing in on rate trajectories amid uncertain conditions.
The bond market is being shaped by multiple crosscurrents, making precise forecasts challenging. While some see room for yield declines, others brace for further upside. The interplay of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy shifts, and technological investment trends continues to influence fixed-income markets.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing