Nearly 40 years after economist Robert Solow noted that computers were visible everywhere except productivity statistics, AI appears to be following the same pattern. Despite 374 S&P 500 companies mentioning AI positively in earnings calls, a National Bureau of Economic Research study found that 90% of firms reported zero impact on employment or productivity over three years.

CEOs report using AI for only about 1.5 hours per week, with 25% not using it at all in the workplace. This contrasts sharply with expectations—executives forecast AI will boost productivity by 1.4% and output by 0.8% over the next three years, while Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok notes you can't see AI in employment, productivity, or inflation data.

Corporate AI investments swelled to more than $250 billion in 2024, yet emerging research shows workers using four or more AI tools experience productivity drops and "brain fog." The pattern differs from the IT boom of the 1980s, as AI tools are readily accessible due to fierce competition between large language model builders. Slok suggests AI's productivity gains will depend not on the technology itself but on how companies implement it across different economic sectors.