In February 1977, President Carter addressed the nation from the White House library, warning that energy is finite and security depends on domestic supply. Two months later he christened a program to build a secure energy base the “energy transition,” a term that ignored the environment and focused on preventing foreign control of fuel. The press dubbed the speech MEOW.

China has pursued a New Joule Order, investing 1.2 terawatts of solar and expanding nuclear capacity so that electrification becomes optionality that sidesteps chokepoints. Since the 1990s, Beijing has added infrastructure that lets every gigawatt of domestic generation avoid transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea or Malacca. The result is a demand flexibility envelope worth about 2 million b/d today.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have liquidated strategic reserves to keep prices low, pushing the SPR from 415 million barrels in March to 357 million today. Cushing inventories have fallen below 25 million barrels, approaching the operational floor that will trigger a market shock when reached. This buffer removal masks the true scarcity signal for the energy transition plan that was unveiled in 1977 by Carter.

The New Joule Order shows that security‑first electrification can outpace environmental rhetoric. As China shifts fuel use, U.S. exports rise, but domestic inventory drawdown erodes the safety net that once steadied prices. When the Cushing floor is hit, the market will correct abruptly, revealing that the abundance illusion has collapsed for energy markets today and investors must reassess their strategies.