China dominates refining of electrification metals — copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt — holding a 72 per cent average share in 2025, per the IEA. Beijing's export controls could put $6.5tn of annual downstream production at risk, while disruption to battery-grade graphite alone threatens $300bn.

An NBER working paper reveals China built a "hub-and-spoke system" via strategic financing despite minimal natural resources. A one-standard-deviation supply shock raises consumer prices roughly one percentage point in the US and EU over two years — double the impact of a comparable fossil fuel shock and far longer lasting.

The US responded with Project Vault, a critical minerals reserve backed by a $10bn Exim loan and nearly $2bn in private investment. G7 leaders committed to diversify rare earths and permanent magnets, tasking ministers to set targets for other critical minerals by year-end.

Meanwhile, China's Belt and Road financing reached $126.3bn in H1 2026, including $20.1bn for green energy. Indonesia sends 98 per cent of ferronickel exports to China, and Kenya plans to develop a $62bn rare earth deposit.