Yttrium, a rare earth first discovered in the 18th century, now powers AI chips and sits at the heart of a geopolitical storm. China dominates its production, but amid a trade war with the US, Beijing has tightened export controls on key metals like gallium and germanium.

The scarcity has sparked panic in defence, automotive, and semiconductor sectors. Nick Myers, CEO of Phoenix Tailings, warns companies may halt production by Christmas if they cannot secure supplies. Earlier concerns about ageing mines and soaring demand have now materialised, forcing western nations to race toward self‑sufficiency and frame the issue as a matter of national security.

China’s 30‑year investment in mining and subsidies has left it a global bottleneck. While export restrictions began in 2023, a licensing scheme now dictates who can access metals, creating unpredictability and encouraging stockpiling. Industry experts like Daniel Yergin note that supply chains are now politicised, with efficiency sacrificed for resilience.

The resulting uncertainty fuels resource nationalism, drives new domestic mining projects, and threatens to split global supply chains into competing American and Chinese spheres.