At least three of the first 32 Rassvet satellites likely suffered outright failures, and more may be in trouble. About 5 percent of SpaceX’s first batch of Starlink satellites failed almost immediately after launch, rising to 13 percent for the initial 60 prototypes. Later batches improved, with Version 2 Starlink satellites achieving a failure rate of about 0.01 percent.

The US military’s Space Development Agency also encountered thermal and propulsion problems in its first 42 operational satellites. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that the second batch of Rassvet satellites “appears to have failed to reach intended operational altitudes,” with none reaching 500 miles and none of the second group climbing above 300 miles. Russian officials may have altered plans to orbit Rassvet at lower altitudes for performance benefits, though this requires more satellites for coverage.

Ground teams might be using lower altitudes to allow orbital planes to drift over months before aligning with final pathways. Russia’s satellite manufacturing sector has produced only a few dozen spacecraft per year since the Soviet Union’s fall. Yuri Borisov, former head of Roscosmos, admitted in 2023 that the country wasn’t ready for such a megaconstellation effort.

Russian forces are seeking Rassvet access after SpaceX cut off Starlink in Ukraine to unregistered terminals, hoping to regain satellite broadband for military use.