As the 2026 midterms approach, the election hinges on the fragile economy and high cost of living. Polls show President Trump and Republicans are underwater on the cost-of-living issue by an eight-point margin. A second issue is rising: corruption, with voters feeling the economy is rigged for a privileged few.

Trump's outsider brand, once his greatest asset, is fading. In 2016, one in six Republicans cited his business experience, and by 2023, nearly seven in 10 still saw him as an outsider. Now, some voters, like Robert, a Texas swing voter, feel the economy benefits only the top class, not general folks.

Nearly two-thirds of voters say most politicians are corrupt. Headlines about memecoin scams, inexplicable pardons, and family wealth accumulation are eroding support. Unlike in 2012, when voters credited Obama for trying, Trump gets no such benefit of the doubt.

In January 2025, voters wanted focus on lowering living costs, but current sentiment suggests disappointment. The winning brand has become just another disappointing politician.