The US PC market surged 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, hitting 18.2 million units shipped, ending two quarters of decline. This revival stemmed from Windows 11 commercial refreshes, holiday demand, and vendors stockpiling inventory ahead of 2026 memory and storage supply constraints. Consumer shipments rose 6% to 8.2 million units, driven by affordable pricing, while commercial growth hit 4% as enterprises rushed Windows 11 upgrades before the October 2025 Windows 10 end-of-support deadline.

Apple’s MacBook Air M4—priced at $999 after doubling memory to 16GB—sparked a 2.4% market share gain, challenging Dell’s 22% YoY growth to 25% market share. HP maintained the top spot with 25% share despite modest 1% growth. Meanwhile, Lenovo and Apple both secured mid-teen shares. Dell’s resurgence came from enterprise deals and premium lineups, while HP’s dominance plateaued.

The education segment, previously collapsing, improved to an 11% Q4 decline (from 29% in Q3), as schools cleared inventory overhangs. However, reduced funding still pressures long-term procurement. Government shipments edged up 1%, stabilizing after earlier cuts. Looking ahead, Omdia predicts a 13% 2026 contraction to 61.9 million units due to 60%+ memory/ storage cost hikes, disproportionately affecting sub-$500 devices and smaller vendors.

Despite 2025’s rebound, the $599 Lenovo Neo and Apple’s value-tier MacBooks signal shifting consumer priorities. Analysts warn that 2026’s supply bottlenecks could reshape the market, squeezing low-end players and prioritizing premium segments.