TrendForce projects global foundry revenue will jump 24.8% year-over-year in 2026, reaching approximately $218.8 billion. This growth is fueled by intense North American investment in AI, particularly from cloud providers like Google, AWS, and Meta, alongside AI startups such as OpenAI and Groq. These entities are accelerating AI chip development, with designs expected to enter volume production in 2026, driving demand for advanced nodes like 5/4nm and beyond. TSMC alone anticipates a 32% revenue increase, significantly outpacing the industry average. Samsung Foundry also reported notable order growth for its 5/4nm-class processes, prompting both foundries to raise prices across all nodes at 5/4nm and below for 2026, with further increases likely in 2027.

Demand for advanced nodes remains robust, primarily driven by AI GPUs from NVIDIA and AMD. TSMC's 5/4nm and below capacity is expected to remain fully utilized through year-end, while Samsung Foundry also saw a significant uptick in orders. However, the mature-node segment, particularly 8-inch wafers, faces headwinds. While AI power-management components and domestic Chinese demand support utilization, 8-inch fabs are not expected to reach full utilization. Consumer electronics demand uncertainty later in the year may lead to downward shipment revisions, making broad-based price hikes across 8-inch lines unlikely. 12-inch wafer capacity expansion for larger nodes like 28nm will continue, but overall utilization remains below full capacity.

The outlook hinges on sustained AI investment. While advanced nodes show strong momentum, the maturity of 8-inch capacity and consumer demand volatility present challenges. Foundries are signaling potential price increases for 2026, but the divergent utilization rates across different node sizes suggest the market will remain fragmented. The key driver remains the continued AI arms race, with TSMC positioned as the primary beneficiary of the projected growth surge.