Researchers at the University of Edinburgh have developed a catalog to identify viruses with the potential to cause pandemics, drawing lessons from historical outbreaks. The catalog focuses on RNA viruses, which have been responsible for recent major epidemics. It differentiates between viruses that primarily spread from animals to humans (zoonotic) and those already capable of human-to-human transmission, deeming the latter a greater immediate threat.

The research highlights that while zoonotic viruses like rabies rarely spread efficiently between people, their potential to evolve is a concern, as seen with bird flu. However, viruses that have already established human-to-human transmission chains, such as measles or coronaviruses, pose a more significant risk for widespread outbreaks. The catalog analyzes factors like disease severity and transmissibility (R number) to predict pandemic potential.

This new catalog aims to help scientists quickly assess the risk posed by newly discovered viruses, potentially providing a crucial head start in preparing for and mitigating future public health emergencies. The ability to identify viruses like SARS-CoV-2 early, before they cause widespread illness, is seen as critical for limiting the impact of the next pandemic, sometimes referred to as 'disease X'.