The recent catastrophic explosion of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket casts significant doubt on NASA's Artemis IV mission timeline. Industry experts speaking at an Ars Technica event expressed skepticism about the company's ability to field the necessary rocket variants. The current architecture for a human lunar landing would require multiple launches of a more powerful 9x4 New Glenn configuration.

This advanced 9x4 variant, intended for more complex missions, has no firm debut date, though some sources suggest late 2027 or early 2028. However, Quilty Space director Caleb Henry suggested a 1.5-year delay is a more realistic estimate, given past development shifts and the complexity added by more engines. He noted that no one has ever hit a new rocket's debut date.

Anthony Colangelo, host of the Main Engine Cut Off podcast, wouldn't be surprised if the 9x4's development slipped into the 2030s. This potential setback raises serious questions about how NASA will transport astronauts to the Moon this decade, especially with critical missions relying on these Blue Origin rockets.