KeyBanc Capital Markets warns that Apple's planned September 9, 2026 iPhone launch — featuring a foldable iPhone Ultra but no base iPhone 18 until spring 2027 — could pressure shares short-term. The firm predicts 80 million iPhone builds across fiscal Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, down 11 million year-over-year, citing the missing entry-level model. KeyBanc maintains a $250 price target despite AAPL trading at $329.97, arguing the market overvalues Apple. It forecasts price hikes: iPhone 18 Pro up $150 to $1,249, Pro Max up $200 to $1,399, and iPhone Ultra starting at $2,199. These increases may trigger a longer share decline as investors react to higher pricing and a Pro-only lineup.

However, historical data shows Pro models capture 80%+ of holiday quarter sales, with base models gaining share after February. Apple's split launch aligns with this demand curve and eases pressure from the global RAM and SSD shortage. KeyBanc's bearish stance contrasts with its history of underestimating Apple's resilience.