Last updated: September 14, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Treasuries and the 5% Threshold
The world’s most widely watched financial marker moved towards levels not seen in decades as the inflation shock from the Iran war lingered. The 10-year yield touched 5%, a level recorded only once since the global financial crisis, as investors continued to rebuff the Trump administration’s efforts to sway the bond market. An intensifying selloff pushed the yield above 5% for the first time since 2023, as mounting inflation concern collided with swelling government and corporate borrowing needs. The bond selloff has driven a key Treasury yield to the verge of 5%, worsening angst from Wall Street to Washington about the higher borrowing costs hitting the US economy. The bond market rebuked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who had dared “Bloomberg terminal bros” to bet against him — and they did. The agency’s justification for doubling its long-term bond purchases is flawed, and the strategy hurts taxpayers.
Central Banks and Rates
The Fed and BoJ meet this week to decide whether to raise interest rates, with implications for US Treasuries. Stanley Druckenmiller said no US rate cuts are needed, while credit fund Arini’s woes, Franklin Templeton’s rebound and the Bayeux Tapestry at the British Museum rounded out the day’s agenda. The oil price surge has revived the prospect of a Bank of England rate rise this year; investors expect the BoE to hold borrowing costs this week but signal a possible increase later in the year.
Oil Shock and the Gulf
Saudi Arabia is in a state of strategic shock after coming under attack from an emboldened Iran and failing to win more US military support, analysts say. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked the United States for more military help last week after Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched a broad offensive. Oil pushed higher as Saudi Arabia’s closure of a major crude pipeline following attacks jolted the market, disrupting a route key to bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Prices jumped to $109 as traders sold futures on concerns that Persian Gulf energy supplies would be further diminished by a drone attack on a critical pipeline. Oil hit $108 after Riyadh pulled out of regional talks to de-escalate hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the drone attack. Oil prices jumped and stock futures fell slightly on the same supply concerns. Oil prices rose after attacks shut a key Saudi pipeline and Houthi militants in Yemen tightened their grip on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. A Houthi offensive has put a second vital energy corridor in the region under the sway of Iran and its allies. The Houthis’ Red Sea blockage remains largely an oil shock rather than a general threat to trade. Energy supplies from Saudi Arabia have been hit just as Europe and the US head into winter.
Oil Logistics and Refining
Saudi Arabia is seeking to further boost oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz after attacks forced it to halt a key pipeline that had been the main means of getting its crude to global markets. Asian oil refiners are waiting for clarity on cargoes due to be picked up at the Red Sea port of Yanbu after the kingdom closed the vital pipeline serving the terminal. Brent crude prices were expected to remain elevated in the fourth quarter, supported by persistent disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, rising risks at Bab el-Mandeb and constrained Middle East exports, according to Hong Leong. A planned meeting for Monday between Iran and several Gulf nations on creating a temporary shipping lane has been postponed, according to Oman’s foreign minister. Talks between the United States and Iran hit a dead end weeks ago, leaving Arab countries struggling to manage their ties to Tehran amid ongoing attacks.
Diesel, Gas and Fuel Costs
Record diesel prices are squeezing trucking companies in the US and Europe, though many of Daimler Truck Holding AG’s customers can still pass the additional fuel costs on to their own clients, its chief executive said. Diesel prices hit a record as supply disruptions mounted, while Stellantis is in talks to sell its idled Toronto-area factory as Canada’s prime minister works to strengthen ties to Europe. President Trump called on Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, saying the attacks — and not his war in Iran — are responsible for diesel hitting record highs. Trump also blamed Ukraine for the global diesel shortage, saying Kyiv’s attacks on Russian refineries were “hurting the world” amid an energy shock driven primarily by the US-Israeli war with Iran. Liquefied natural gas prices — which have surged since the start of the US-Iran war — are unlikely to drop in the short term, according to Chevron Corp.’s Australia president. The loss of a fifth of LNG supply due to the US-Iran war is blowing out costs for Asia’s developing markets and forcing a rethink of the fuel’s long-term future in the region. Market mindset has shifted to concerns of extended outage as Strait of Hormuz blockages continue ahead of winter. US natural gas futures gained ground as weekend weather forecasts showed summer heat lasting a little longer.
AI Selloff and Tech
Equities fell around the world after leaders of the biggest artificial-intelligence firms proposed slowing the technology’s development, with an advance in oil prices sapping risk sentiment further. Nasdaq futures dropped as talk of a safety-first AI slowdown weighed on tech stocks. Equity markets reacted with concern to a weekend essay by Anthropic’s CEO warning against a race to the bottom in the development of new AI models. For months, AI-obsessed investors have thrown billions of dollars into technology stocks and largely ignored the rest of the market; Monday’s rout in the sector followed calls by industry leaders. Investors were already fretting that AI hype had inflated a bubble in stocks. Tech stocks fell after big AI groups called for a slowdown, with South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi sliding as Wall Street was set to open lower. Companies at the forefront of artificial intelligence in Asia, Europe and the United States posted declines after tech leaders expressed worries about the safety of “frontier” AI technology. SoftBank Group’s shares slid the most in nearly three months after the heads of Anthropic PBC and OpenAI called on developers to tap the brakes on AI development for safety reasons. Japanese stocks were lower in early trade, with the Nikkei down 1.6% as uncertainty over the Iran war and the Fed policy outlook continued. The discourse around risks is starting to merge and mutate. A call to slow the development of artificial intelligence has rattled markets and drawn pushback in Washington and Beijing, while others worry it may not be enough. The debate over the safety of AI grew personal as key tech leaders said calls for government regulation were self-serving and misplaced. Dario Amodei’s 3,800-word letter laid out a three-step plan to rein in artificial intelligence. Jacob Coxon, who quit his job at Anthropic, discusses his concerns about the risks of artificial intelligence. The companies’ calls for regulation may be self-dealing, but that doesn’t make them wrong. Vandalism against food-delivery robots isn’t going to slow the technology down. Current chatbots aren’t likely to help lone actors invent a deadly pathogen, experts say, but newer models trained in biology may need stronger safeguards. The deep schism between OpenAI and Anthropic has led to a race-like dynamic towards ever more powerful models. The founders of OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok and Deep Mind have warned about the dangers; now technology needs to be human scale. Rightwing activist Steve Bannon and leftwing senator Bernie Sanders joined forces to demand stronger regulation of the technology. President Trump again rejected calls to regulate the industry, even as some of its leaders speak more openly about the risks of rapidly developing AI. Trump also denounced demands for regulation as existential fears over technology moved to the centre of US politics. King Charles will meet with executives in Scotland to explore how the technology can be used for good as alarm from the highest echelons of AI companies mounts. China’s spy chief is framing the technology as a threat to the Communist Party’s security even as Beijing urges Washington not to hype the dangers of AI. Beijing signaled growing concern over how rapid advances in technology could be used against the country, warning of hostile forces using AI for “cognitive warfare.”
Equities and Strategy
Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian, among top equity bears, raised her Street-low target for the S&P 500 Index to 7,400 while flagging the gauge is still prone to interest-rate risks. Stocks face midterm pressure as an AI slowdown looms, with a proposed AI slowdown spooking the tech sector. Emerging-market stocks fell as rising Middle East tensions drove investors toward safer assets, while uncertainty over the global rate outlook added pressure. Some investors are snapping up New Zealand bonds, betting sluggish economic growth will keep the central bank cautious on rate hikes and extend the debt’s outperformance over global peers. Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, is buying two-year US Treasuries to protect against the risk of economic growth slowdown after the recent selloff. The energy shock and central bank tightening that have driven European bond yields higher could ultimately put a lid on them by weakening the region’s economy, according to Citadel Securities. Copper declined as hotter-than-expected US inflation saw traders boost bets on the Fed hiking rates. Gold fell as continued Middle East oil supply disruptions reinforced bets on a series of Fed rate hikes this year. Gold edged lower in Asian trade, with US core inflation data likely strengthening the case for a Fed hike this week, CBA said. The cryptocurrency has struggled to hold above $80,000 since its mid-August surge, and analysts say progress this week on the Clarity Act and a Fed rate hold could provide boosts.
Credit and Private Markets
The default rate for a group of US private debt borrowers rose to a record in August, according to Fitch Ratings, hitting 6.3%. Junk-rated borrowers lining up around €3.7 billion ($4.3 billion) in refinancing deals are willing to accept significantly higher rates, betting costs will rise even further if they wait. The current expected credit losses accounting standard forces banks to predict future economic outcomes and drains resources. The commercial mortgage backed securities market, long a mainstay of financing for America’s offices, apartments and malls, is being reshaped by a surge in data-center deals, forcing investors to grapple with new risks. There are fewer people sitting on ultracheap mortgages than you might think, leaving mortgage bonds at risk whether rates rise or fall. A messy breakup between Harley Bassman, the derivatives expert who invented the main gauge of Treasury volatility, and his former employer has escalated after the bond veteran sent a letter to the $14 billion ETF issuer.
Deals and M&A
Puig Brands SA is to take full control of Isdin for €1.2 billion ($1.4 billion) after agreeing to buy the remaining 50% of the skincare brand it didn’t already own. A consortium led by Dell Chief Executive Michael Dell’s DFO Management is taking Baldwin Group private in a cash deal valued at $7.7 billion. DFO Management and Sequence are near the acquisition of Baldwin Group as the industry undergoes a wave of consolidation. Aon Plc has kicked off a jumbo US investment-grade debt offering to help fund its planned $17 billion acquisition of USI Insurance Services from private equity firm KKR & Co. Next Era expects adjusted earnings of $3.92 to $4.02 a share for 2026 as it works with Dominion to clear state regulatory hurdles for a $67 billion merger. Next Era Energy Inc. and Dominion Energy Inc. have offered more bill credits and new jobs to convince Virginia regulators that their $67 billion deal won’t hit homeowners with rate hikes. Solar Industries India Ltd. agreed to acquire South African industrial-explosives and fertilizer firm Omnia Holdings Ltd. for 21.8 billion rand ($1.4 billion), seeking to expand on the continent. Essar Energy Transition Fuels Ltd.’s retail unit has agreed to acquire UK fuel retailer SGN Retail, a deal that could double its network of fuel stations in the country. The purchase by the owner of the Stanlow refinery comes as BP and Shell retreat from forecourts globally. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA pledged to keep pursuing its twin offers for Banco BPM SpA and Banca Generali SpA even if it gets bought by Intesa Sanpaolo SpA. Euronext Chief Executive Stephane Boujnah told the Financial Times that a tie-up between the two groups’ stock exchange business would make sense, sending shares higher. Boujnah’s comments come as EU officials seek ways to make the bloc’s capital markets more competitive. Europe’s protracted efforts to turn its much maligned markets into a more attractive proposition for investors reach a momentous juncture Monday with the arrival of a consolidated tape. Australian miner GM3 is gauging investor sentiment for a possible bond issue to refinance a $600 million private credit loan, joining borrowers turning to public debt markets to lower costs. Latam Airlines secured about $505 million in financing to fund 11 new aircraft, according to a company statement. Schroders, which agreed its own £10 billion sale to Nuveen, wants to refocus on very wealthy clients and is considering acquisitions to grow its wealth division.
Corporate and Regulatory
Haidilao International Holding Ltd.’s sudden slump after its co-founder sold about $350 million worth of shares is putting the spotlight on other stocks vulnerable to similar selling amid a China tax clampdown. Italy’s securities regulator has asked Ferretti SpA for information on its assessment of asset values after the yachtmaker cut its annual outlook. Hugo Boss chair Stephan Sturm will depart the board of the German fashion group after clashing with largest shareholder Frasers Group over dividend payments. Crispin Odey lost his bid to overturn a lifetime ban on managing money, capping a remarkable fall from grace for the once-feted fund manager. Odey also lost his appeal against the industry ban, with his fine reduced to £1.5 million, a blow to attempts to repair his reputation after allegations of sexual harassment and assault. Malaysia charged former minister Jamil Khir Baharom for allegedly misappropriating 860 million ringgit ($210 million) from the Muslim pilgrimage fund Tabung Haji, making him the second UMNO leader charged after a fund probe. The Pentagon will take a near-20% stake in a US producer of tungsten — a metal used in military hardware — in a $450 million move expanding the Trump administration’s push to secure critical minerals supplies. An American miner is partnering with Rwanda’s government to source and process tungsten, extending a push to build a Western-aligned supply chain for the strategic metal. The UK government is considering a takeover of insolvent Speciality Steel UK, which was once part of Sanjeev Gupta’s metals empire, after Norwegian firm Blastr had been in talks to acquire it. Chubu Electric’s decision to halt a nuclear reactor restart after a data manipulation scandal marks a setback in Japan’s pivot back to atomic power 15 years after Fukushima. The E.P.A. will erase limits on climate pollution from power plants, with electricity generation the second largest source of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases in the United States. President Trump’s decision to lift tariffs on Irish whiskey, announced while visiting his golf course in Ireland, was the latest shift in his trade policies. Trump closed out his weekend visit to Ireland by announcing the pledge to rescind the 10% tariff at the Irish Open golf tournament. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska has shown quiet support for Trump’s tariffs, while his brother, the head of their family business, has described the economic volatility as an enormous challenge. The Trump administration’s push to bring US drug spending down is a powerful incentive for pharmaceutical companies to boost prices and reduce access elsewhere in the world, a study found. Federal projects are rolling out A.I. agents that offer therapy and prescribe medicine, raising concerns about safety and the influence of venture capital investors. The end of legal protections for Haitian immigrants nationally has jolted the labor market in Key West, Florida, where many live and work.
Energy Transition and Commodities
Concord Pacific Developments Inc. acquired a field of fifty wind turbines from Potentia Renewables Inc. for several hundred million Canadian dollars, deepening the Canadian developer’s long-term bet on data-center expansion. Metlen said its partnership with Petronas would enhance supply security and meet internal energy needs as well as broader European gas demand. Chinese-made panels on rooftops across the world are changing the facts of life for big utilities, with solar power looking “offensively cheap.” TD Bank pledged C$108 billion over five years to fuel Canadian infrastructure, alongside TD Economics research estimating overall nation-building capital investments could reach up to $1.2 trillion by 2035.
Asia and Emerging Markets
India’s inflation accelerated in August, pushing closer to the top of the central bank’s 2%-6% target range and potentially narrowing the scope for policymakers to remain on hold for long. China’s credit expansion fell well short of expectations in August from a year ago, as subdued borrowing by households and businesses outweighed support from government bond sales. China’s economy is moving into a period that could determine the course of stimulus through the end of the year, as consumers remain gripped by malaise despite signs of stabilizing growth. The appointment of Suahasil Nazara as Indonesia’s new finance minister signals the government’s recognition of its fiscal challenges, according to analysts. Asian currencies were likely to continue facing headwinds as tightening global liquidity and higher oil prices keep inflation risks alive, MUFG Bank said. South Korea’s National Pension Service named Kyuhong Lee as chief investment officer to oversee its $1.4 trillion portfolio, one of the world’s largest pools of retirement savings. Voters in a predominantly Muslim autonomous region of the Philippines cast their ballots in their first-ever parliamentary election, hoping to cement peace and economic growth after decades of separatist conflict. The International Monetary Fund said Senegal’s debt sustainability analysis is being prepared under the “current framework” for low-income countries, according to a spokesperson. Just three years ago, global bankers would fly into the Gulf to corner a slice of the world’s hottest market for new share sales; now even local advisers are being forced to hunt for business outside the region amid an IPO slump.
Funds and Asset Management
Insurers in Dodgers billionaire Mark Walter’s empire are among the country’s major annuity sellers, with his financial empire fueled by retirement savers. Plus, HOF Capital’s Hisham Elhaddad steers deeper into private equity amid a hidden dividend recap risk in private credit. Plus, HOF Capital broadens its reach as America’s AI freakout creates growing pains for startups in the Chat GPT generation.
Real Estate and Consumer
Malls lead commercial real estate as property values jumped 13%, with investors watching which stocks could trip up Democrats’ midterm momentum. Ailing luxury developments on Dubai’s man-made archipelago reflect strains on the wider real estate sector as the emirate’s $6 billion island dream meets the reality of war. Airbnb, long criticized for driving up housing prices, pledged to fill financing holes that have stalled developments with a $250 million fund to invest in housing construction. The premium sportswear company On Holding’s long-held stance of no discounts is up against a more promotional retail environment as softer retail sales test its aversion to discounting. Plus, Trump pledged to rescind the tariff on Irish whiskey as America’s debt picture looks bleak. Mixue has flooded Chinese cities with 45-cent soft-serve cones and now has more stores than McDonald’s, building the world’s biggest fast-food chain with the Dollar General playbook. Amazon said it would “pause” its relationship with 21 Air, the cargo airline operating a Boeing 767 that overshot a runway in Miami. The crash has put a spotlight on 21 Air and owner Jim Crane, the logistics magnate and owner of the Houston Astros baseball team. Amazon, Netflix and YouTube are founding members of a new Streaming Access and Choice Alliance that will advocate for consumer access to online content.
Media, Culture and Society
The NFL’s shrinkflation era leaves YouTube paying more for less, while a $250 million investment in housing may help Airbnb improve its reputation in the neighborhood. Oprah Winfrey will host three planned April shows at the high-tech domed Las Vegas Sphere, the latest project for the media personality and entrepreneur. The long-running CBS News program returned for a high-pressure 59th season on Sunday, with new correspondents and a refreshed stopwatch marking more tweak than overhaul as the Bari Weiss era of “60 Minutes” began. Celine Dion’s long-awaited concert return highlighted a side of the French-speaking superstar rarely seen in the United States as she began her Paris comeback run. The collectibles market has gone from playground craze to serious investment, with Pokémon cards selling for more than $1 million. The ‘Diary of a CEO’ host Steven Bartlett, who has faced criticism over spreading fringe claims, is building a one-stop shop for other creators. In a new memoir, the man behind Shake Shack and a suite of influential restaurants revisits the business blunders that taught him valuable lessons. Bob Mackie, the designer whose sequined gowns and outrageous costumes threw clouds of glitter at American fashion for over half a century, died at. Taryn Simon’s new show at the Guggenheim Museum is an audacious attempt to document the story of modern America through the life of one F.B.I. agent. Starting Sept. 21, the Times will unveil a list of the 100 best TV shows of the 21st century, as voted on by more than 500 television professionals. NBC is broadcasting the Monday night Emmy ceremony, hosted by Mariska Hargitay.
Legal, Labor and Politics
In a federal lawsuit, Mahmoud Khalil and other former student activists say the university was deliberately indifferent to their harassment even before the 2023 Hamas attacks. A finding by the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission said there was reason to believe Cisco subjected pro-Palestinian employees to a hostile environment. A ruling by a lower court judge was another blow to President Trump’s effort to make voting by mail harder, as the Supreme Court also weighs the plan. The policy would give immigration officers wide authority to deny green cards to people using public benefits, drawing a lawsuit from states and cities. The Department of Homeland Security’s internal watchdog provided new details about conditions at the now-shuttered Florida detention center known as “Alligator Alcatraz,” including the use of small cages to confine migrants. Persistent distractions are feeding a climate of mistrust as the US military faces wartime issues including shortfalls of missile interceptors, as Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon culture war creates its own. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York is devoting a hearing to menopause, a topic that affects millions but is poorly understood and widely ignored when it comes to federal research money. Racial and political tensions have flared in Trinidad and Tobago after members of an ethnic minority were accused of an assassination plot based on a private phone call. How a killing that divided America revealed what it has in common was the subject of scrutiny after a subway death. City officials — and one determined mother — are working to stop the spread of cychlorphine, far more potent than fentanyl, after a teen autopsy marked the drug’s arrival in San Francisco. The case is the third reported death linked to a rapidly expanding measles outbreak that has sickened more than 670 people in Pennsylvania. Many Republicans criticized the post, some in more direct terms than others, after a Texas Republican’s racist social media post drew condemnation. Cutting-edge technologies have reshaped the Russian capital, making it safer, more convenient — and more closely watched — as Moscow doubles as a surveillance trap. Two languages, two realities frame the story of Israel’s elimination project in the West Bank. As global temperature increase shoots past 1.5 degrees Celsius, the vulnerable countries that fought for that Paris Agreement target face a brutal new reality. It’s about more than just shamelessness when asking why scandals don’t bring down politicians anymore. At least six people were killed and more than 100 rescued after a ferry sank in the Java Sea on Sunday, with more than 120 unaccounted for. David Petraeus was at a rail station when a drone hit, and another train with former Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain and other dignitaries had just left, Ukrainian officials said. The attack on Ukraine’s rail network, which connects the country to the West, was a jab at Europe, officials said. Paris replicated Viktor Orbán’s tactics in a bid to free French nationals from Azerbaijan amid an “astonishing” push to lift EU sanctions on Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov. Prince Michael of Liechtenstein accused the EU of “bureaucratic zeal” over anti-money laundering rules, saying Europe’s disclosure push has gone “too far” after a cyber breach. The UK has been a major beneficiary of Hollywood shifting movie production overseas, but America’s superheroes may not stay in Britain. Owners of defence and technology groups fear selling to American bidders will attract opposition from European governments as defence sales test Europe’s appetite for US investment. Isembard said its 160,000 sq ft facility is central London’s largest since the Second World War, opening a factory a mile from Tower Bridge amid a defence surge. An agreement to turn an ailing Volkswagen factory into a defense manufacturing hub offers hope for jobs, but a shift from “family vans to tanks” in Germany is not so simple. The UK government is considering a takeover of insolvent steelmaker Speciality Steel UK. Chubu Electric’s decision marks a setback in Japan’s pivot back to atomic power.
Health, Science and Startups
Participants in a new trial lost weight and did not suffer gastrointestinal byproducts associated with GLP-1 medicines, a breakthrough for a weight-loss drug with fewer side effects. Novo Nordisk is under pressure from investors to regain ground in the obesity market as the Danish pharmaceutical group ditches “Nordisk” from its name in an attempted revival. Open Cosmos, a European satellite maker, has raised about $346 million, part of a wave of recent funding deals in the space sector as money flows into space start-ups and some investors see a SpaceX effect. A rig collapsed in Miami’s financial district at the construction site of Citadel’s new headquarters, crushing several cars, snarling traffic and injuring four. Dutch start-up Fortaegis claims it can create ultra-secure computer networks by harnessing the unique digital fingerprint of chips after completing a funding round for encrypted silicon technology. The UK’s FCA is considering a bespoke regime that could exempt tokenised gold from fund regulations as it bids to unlock more of London’s bullion reserves as collateral. Scammers are flooding platforms with AI-generated tracks then deploying bots to rack up plays and royalty payments, prompting the music industry to target AI songs in a streaming fraud crackdown. Criminals are switching from using vast fraud compounds with hundreds of workers to one or two people working on sophisticated models, a financial watchdog warned. Plans to update the nutrient profiling model are part of an effort to tackle childhood obesity, and an expanded ad ban on “less healthy” foods could hit £1 billion in UK media spending. Also in today’s First FT newsletter: oil surged as Hormuz talks were postponed, and Warsh and Trump are on a collision course, while Anthropic stays bullish on profitability. Take part in a live Ask an Expert Q&A with John Gapper, the FT’s chief UK business columnist, on Thursday September 17 at 1pm BST on what British businesses need from the Budget. Talk all things midterms with our reporters and other WSJ Politics newsletter readers.