Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola faces a critical decision ahead of Sunday's Carabao Cup final against Arsenal: start the league's most potent striker, Erling Haaland, despite his recent goal-scoring drought. Haaland's form has plummeted since the turn of the year, netting just five goals in 2026 compared to 25 between August and December 2025. His conversion rate has also collapsed to 10.5%, significantly lower than his usual standards, and he's taking more shots from outside the box.

Guardiola acknowledges the team misses Haaland's goals but insists the issue lies in the connections and chances created, not solely the striker. The Spaniard's tactical experiments, including various formations and roles for players like Matheus Nunes and Nico O'Reilly, have yielded inconsistent results. While City's win ratio spikes to 75% when Haaland doesn't play (based on limited data), his absence in the recent FA Cup win at Newcastle was noted.

The core problem remains balancing City's attacking structure to ensure Haaland consistently receives the central chances he thrives on. If fit, starting Haaland seems logical, but his current form and the compact Arsenal defence present a significant risk.