MLB’s 2023 rule overhaul – limiting pitcher disengagements, adding a pitch clock and enlarging the bags – gave base‑runners a clear edge. Stolen‑base totals jumped immediately, peaking in 2024, then slipped in 2025 and are sliding again this season. Success rates spiked the first year but have drifted back toward historic levels, while overall steal opportunities have stayed within one percent of the five‑year average.

Catchers have adapted by throwing to the first‑base side of the bag, shortening the trajectory and allowing a torso tag instead of chasing a hand. The new tag sits three to four feet from the base, complicating umpire positioning and giving replay challenges a better chance to overturn safe calls. With balls‑and‑strikes, many catchers now prioritize a quick release over framing, further lowering attempt rates.

Fantasy points‑league managers should note the stark contrast between defenses. Milwaukee Brewers surrender only 0.34 steals per game, while Tampa Bay Rays allow 1.03. Streaming low‑ownership players on steal‑heavy squads—Connor Norby (Marlins), Garrett Mitchell (Brewers), Richie Palacios (Rays)—can net valuable upside on light‑hit days. Prioritizing those with high success rates remains the most reliable way to capture the lingering run‑value of the basepath.