Lior Susan's Eclipse Ventures turned a $6.5 million Series A bet in Cerebras into a $2.5 billion return when the AI chipmaker went public. The $147 million total investment across Eclipse's stake generated a 17-fold return at the IPO price of $185 per share, validating a decade-old thesis that the physical world — not just software — holds the biggest venture payoffs.

Susan's bet on Cerebras looks prophetic. Eclipse's portfolio companies pulled in nearly $15 billion from outside investors last year, with $4.5 billion more in Q1 2026 alone. Follow-on rounds read like a VC wish list: $1.2 billion for Wayve, $650 million for True Anomaly, $270 million for Bedrock Robotics, and $200 million for Oxide Computer — Eclipse led Series A in every case.

The momentum reflects broader market shifts. TSMC and Micron shares recently hit all-time highs, and Susan argues the SaaS moat has eroded as vibe coding democratizes software. Manufacturing wafers, building robots, and scaling energy infrastructure still demand capital, talent, and real infrastructure. Government subsidies and favorable regulation are aligning with private capital for the first time in decades, making physical-world tech the most compelling sector in venture.