Venture capital's seed stage is increasingly dominated by massive deals, particularly in AI, while smaller rounds struggle. Crunchbase data reveals a stark bifurcation: seed funding totals $19.4 billion in 2025, but only the upper bands, especially $10 million-plus deals, grew significantly. Deals $200,000-$5 million fell 20% year-over-year, while those $5 million-$10 million stayed flat.

The $10 million-plus category, now comprising roughly 1 in 10 seed deals over $200,000, saw a 51% increase in deal value compared to 2024. This surge is fueled by AI, with companies like Thinking Machines Lab securing a record $2 billion seed round. Founders like Katie Stanton of Moxxie Ventures note the market demands massive capital for rapid growth, leading funds to shift strategies: allocating 60-70% to primary capital and seeking founders earlier.

Despite this, smaller companies and VCs remain essential for future breakthroughs.