Seed financing has ballooned since the AI surge, with Crunchbase data showing the median U.S. seed round at $3 million last year—three times the 2018 level. The upper‑quartile median hit $5.6 million, while outliers now command $8 million to $10 million deals that once belonged to later stages. Uncork Capital’s Andy McLoughlin says his typical seed check has risen from $2.5 million to $4.5 million.

Series A rounds have followed suit, with the median deal climbing to $15 million and the upper quartile surpassing $25 million. Startups now wait more than two years after a $1 million‑plus seed to secure a Series A, and investors demand $2‑$4 million of ARR as proof of scale. Only 27% of 2023 seed graduates have moved on, down from over 55% before 2021. Funding cycles now stretch even further.

The expanding check sizes force VCs to allocate more capital per bet and accept slimmer ownership, raising portfolio mortality but also inflating potential upside. McLoughlin warns that seed‑to‑Series A failures will surge, yet he expects the few breakout winners to eclipse historic returns. This shift reshapes early‑stage risk models across Silicon Valley.