Startup funding has shifted dramatically toward megadeals. In the first half of 2026, 60% of global startup funding — $320 billion — went to rounds of $1 billion or more, per Crunchbase data. The U.S. tilt is even steeper, with 73% of $290 billion invested in such deals. Just two AI leaders, OpenAI and Anthropic, account for more than half that total.

Frequency is also rising. U.S. startups have closed 23 billion-dollar-plus rounds so far in 2026, matching the full-year record set in 2025 with five months remaining. Nearly all are late-stage or corporate financings; only Prometheus and World Labs were early-stage.

The trend began with Uber's $1.2 billion Series D in 2014. Early beneficiaries like SpaceX ($1.6 trillion market cap), Uber ($148 billion), and Airbnb ($87 billion) delivered massive returns, though Argo AI and WeWork faltered. Grail has been volatile, while Fanatics thrives privately.

Now the stakes are higher. With Anthropic and OpenAI pursuing rounds in the tens or hundreds of billions and both filing confidentially for IPOs, investors face uncharted territory on whether such colossal bets will pay off.