Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stepped up warnings of tightness in global refining driven by wars in the Middle East and between Moscow and Kyiv, with the bank more than doubling its forecasts for profits from making diesel. “Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined-products margins to new highs,” analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven said in a note. “Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally.” The warnings highlight how ongoing conflicts are curbing diesel flows, creating profit opportunities for refiners while tightening supply for end users.

Crop prices are set to cap their biggest monthly jump in more than a decade as wars and extreme weather disrupt supplies, raising concerns about food inflation. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 major products, is up more than 13% in August as of Friday, heading for the steepest gain since July 2012. Wheat has been one of the biggest drivers, with prices recently reaching a three-year high Bloomberg Terminal as Black Sea port attacks slash shipments from a major growing region. Sugar and cocoa Bloomberg Terminal are also up about 20% as a strengthening El Niño fuels weather worries.