Federal authorities are preparing insider trading charges against a U.S. servicemember who allegedly earned over $1 million by betting on Polymarket using confidential information about military strikes in Iran and Venezuela. The serviceman has been under scrutiny since spring. Authorities are also investigating a KPMG employee for betting on whether a public company would beat earnings estimates, using material nonpublic information from their job.

Charges in both cases could come this fall, though no final decision has been made. Investigations involve Manhattan and Washington federal prosecutors and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Polymarket, an offshore prediction market allowing anonymous trading, records bets on a blockchain, enabling detection of suspicious activity.

The platform says it monitors for illegal conduct and has referred nearly 100 digital-asset wallets to authorities. Critics question whether these cases represent a novel expansion of insider trading law that may not hold up in court. Prosecutors have brought two criminal cases this year against individuals using confidential information on Polymarket, including a U.S. Army soldier charged in April for betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s ouster.