After a dry spell of more than three decades, Democrats are daring (yet again) to believe they can win one or more top-of-the-ballot races in a vast and stubbornly red state. According to the latest New York Times/Siena University poll, James Talarico, a 37-year-old state legislator, is ahead of his Republican rival, Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, by six points in the U.S. Senate race. The poll was conducted from Sept. 21 to Sept. 30, 2026.
A separate mid-September survey showed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa four points ahead of Greg Abbott. Despite historical Democratic struggles in Texas, including losses by Tony Sanchez Jr., Wendy Davis, and Beto O’Rourke, party members express cautious optimism. Trump’s unpopularity in Texas and potential national momentum fuel hopes for a breakthrough.
Talarico has run an energetic, well-financed campaign, while Paxton has relied on outside groups for attack ads. Abbott has outspent Hinojosa 10-to-one but failed to build an insurmountable lead.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing