On paper, Democrats' path to winning the Senate in November looks daunting — they need to flip at least two Republican-held seats. But since Labor Day, Joe Biden and his party have been tied or ahead in nearly every nonpartisan poll across five states that voted for Donald Trump by between 11 and 16 points: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. Today's latest New York Times/Siena polls continue the streak, finding Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska, and Ohio; tied in Kansas; and down by just one point in Iowa. If the polls hold, Democrats could take the Senate with room to spare.
This is an extraordinary run for Democrats, especially in Texas and Alaska, where they've built consistent leads. Winning those two states, holding their own seats, and adding North Carolina would mean needing just one more Republican-held state to secure control. Leading polls in September don't guarantee November wins, particularly in Republican-leaning areas where polling has often overestimated Democrats. Still, Republicans have deep pockets and can rally base voters.
Democrats are succeeding with a clear recipe: at a time when Trump is very unpopular, they've nominated popular, relatively moderate candidates against surprisingly unpopular Republicans. Across all five contests, Trump's approval sits at just 40 percent, with 57 percent viewing him unfavorably — a significant drop since June. Two explanations emerge: his ratings are falling nationwide amid rising gas prices and mortgage rates, or he's losing disproportionate ground in these states due to issues like high diesel costs in the Farm Belt or cracks in his base among traditional Republicans who backed him reluctantly. All five states opposed Trump in the 2016 Republican primary, suggesting deeper vulnerabilities.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing