Oil traders have long relied on the Brent futures price to gauge market health, but the war with Iran has stretched the gap between futures and spot rates to a record level. The physical price now sits near $145 per barrel, more than double the pre‑attack level.

The divergence stems from the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck, where shipping companies avoid transit, leaving a sizeable share of global output stranded in the Persian Gulf. As a result, Asian refineries report shortages, and countries like Vietnam and Thailand have shut pumps.

Energy executives, including Chevron’s Mike Wirth, warn that futures markets no longer reflect on‑water realities. Even after a brief cease‑fire, physical shipping remains restrained, keeping the spot market tight and prices elevated.

The widening spread signals a deeper supply shock than headline futures suggest, forcing investors to reassess risk exposure in the crude and refining sectors.