Brent crude fell to $72.40 a barrel on Thursday, dropping below the pre-Iran war benchmark of $72.48 as pent-up Gulf shipments began flowing freely. The 1.8 per cent decline came after 31 tankers departed the Gulf—a 50 per cent jump from the previous day—signaling traders are pricing in a return to normalcy following the Middle East conflict.

The Iran war had trapped over a billion barrels inside the Gulf, forcing producers to halt exports through the Strait of Hormuz while countries drained reserves. US energy secretary Chris Wright reported 20 million barrels exiting the strait in 24 hours aboard 72 ships, after the Trump administration lifted Iranian oil sanctions for 60 days. This surge represents nearly a fifth of global daily consumption.

Analysts warn the short-term oversupply masks deeper vulnerabilities. Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects noted oil inventories sit at precarious levels after the market burned through significant reserves. She expects crude prices to stabilize between $80-90 a barrel and rise within a month once trapped supplies clear.

Paul Horsnell of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies argues the Gulf cargo surge creates only a temporary overhang, with production unable to sustain current delivery rates. He projects supply-demand balance by October, though monthly deficits continue shrinking. The market trades as massively oversold, ignoring lingering geopolitical risks that remain very real.