Oil traders warn that the latest flare‑up of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz marks a risky new phase for the market, which is now facing fresh disruption without the stockpiles that helped avert a wider crisis earlier in the US‑Iran war.

The break in the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has again largely shut the waterway, ending a brief surge of shipments that normally carry about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies. The International Energy Agency said on Friday that its members had released almost three‑quarters of the planned 400mn‑barrel emergency stock, meaning only a few more weeks remain before those supplies dry up.

Oil prices fell sharply after the ceasefire was first announced, dropping from about $100 a barrel to just above $70. Traders now see a swift rebound: Brent crude surged above $87 on Tuesday, the highest level in more than a month, and traded at about $85.50 on Wednesday, up 13% this week. The market has burned through all its buffers, leaving little room for further shocks.

The shortage has already reached the pump, with petrol and diesel prices climbing faster than crude. Refined‑fuel markets are tight, and disruptions from Russia and the Red Sea add pressure. Airlines have adjusted schedules, but inventories will draw down over the summer, posing a challenge before winter.