Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million barrel reserve release, but markets remained unsettled by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The critical trade route, which normally carries 20 million barrels daily, remains shut due to ongoing attacks, with three vessels targeted in the channel this week alone. While reserves offer temporary relief, analysts stress they can only offset 20 days of normal flow, failing to address the systemic disruption caused by the conflict.

The strategic reserves’ release highlights logistical challenges: facilities like South Korea’s Okinawa storage site and U.S. depots face physical and contractual hurdles in mobilizing supplies. Even if shipments resume, refineries may take months to restart operations after shutdowns, as noted by Singapore-based analyst June Goh. This delay compounds fears of sustained supply shortages, with traders betting on no near-term resolution to the Iran-backed attacks.

Geopolitical tensions underscore the strait’s irreplaceable role: $110-a-barrel prices reflect bets that Iran’s blockade won’t ease soon. U.S. strikes have not deterred Iran’s goal to expel foreign forces from the Gulf, complicating efforts to reopen the route. Edward Fishman of the Council on Foreign Relations warns that only Iran can restore normalcy, a scenario deemed unlikely after two weeks of escalating attacks. The market’s volatility signals a grim reality: oil supply chains remain fractured, with no quick fix in sight.

As the crisis drags on, businesses face heightened uncertainty. The IEA’s reserves release, while historic, underscores the limits of emergency measures in a warzone economy. With Hormuz’s closure now a persistent threat, energy markets brace for prolonged instability, testing global preparedness for prolonged supply shocks.