This time last year, hardly anyone imagined that Democrats would be on the verge of winning the Senate. The map was stacked against them. They were defending seats in states Trump won, such as Michigan and Georgia, and to win a majority they also needed to defeat longtime incumbent Senator Susan Collins in Maine and flip Republican-held seats in deep red states like Alaska, Ohio and Texas. The best case had been pickups in North Carolina and Maine, with the rest a wash.
But weeks before Election Day, it looks increasingly possible that Democrats will defy the odds. The party is on target in states that were always on the table, and Democratic candidates are ahead in states once considered significant reaches, including Alaska and Texas. Newly competitive races in Iowa, Kansas and even South Carolina have Democrats running neck and neck with Republicans. Most forecasts show either a tossup or a slight to modest advantage for Democrats, and that could shift further if fuel prices stay high and Trump's popularity keeps sinking. In a best-case scenario, Democrats would not only take control of the chamber but also secure their largest Senate majority since the 111th Congress began in 2009.
The columnist argues this trend was predictable. Trump is appealing as a candidate, but when Americans experience his governance, they tend to turn on him. Unpopular moves, including the rendition of Kilmar Abrego Garcia and the Liberation Day tariffs, along with a run of calamities in his second year, have accelerated his political decline. Democrats' gains in last year's elections already reflected his sinking standing.
The administration appears blindsided by the prospect of a Democratic Congress next year. The columnist suggests this may explain the aggression with which the president has lashed out recently, including a live-streamed public execution plan and a raid on the home of Representative Ilhan Omar.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing