It felt like doomsday for the Brazilian left. On Oct. 4, Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing presidential candidate, outperformed polls and edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist. The narrow margin was not enough to avoid a runoff on Sunday between the two candidates, but it was plenty to set off hand-wringing and soul-searching across progressive bubbles in big cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and a reorganization in Mr. Lula's campaign.
A visit to Nanuque, a cattle-raising, churchgoing town 500 miles north of Rio de Janeiro, offers clues to Mr. Lula's lackluster showing and Mr. Bolsonaro's rise. The town of 35,000 sits in the bellwether state of Minas Gerais, which has backed the winner in every presidential election since 1988. In the 2022 race, Nanuque was the most closely divided of Brazil's 5,569 municipalities, with Jair Bolsonaro winning by one vote. Jair Bolsonaro later lost that election to Mr. Lula and was convicted of plotting a coup after trying to hold onto power.
Mr. Bolsonaro's ability to win similar towns, rooted in agriculture and with a strong Evangelical Christian presence, contributed to his strong first-round showing. He won 79 percent of towns with a large agricultural sector, a high percentage of evangelical Christians and fewer than 50,000 residents, according to an analysis by Marco Faganello of Fundação Getulio Vargas. In interviews with voters in Nanuque, those who have abandoned Mr. Lula cited unfulfilled economic promises, past corruption scandals and frustration with health care. Others expressed fatigue over an 80-year-old incumbent running for a fourth term.
Some Bolsonaro supporters said their backing rested not on his track record but on their affection for Jair Bolsonaro. Others were simply fed up with politics and planned to abstain. Agribusiness, which accounts for a quarter of the country's economy, has become one of Mr. Lula's biggest detractors, criticizing him over high interest rates and environmental regulations.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing