Chinese automakers face the steepest losses from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, with Jianghuai most exposed at 9% of volumes tied to the region. The Middle East auto market, which recorded roughly 3 million new car sales in 2025, now faces severe disruption as vessels reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to shipping routes.

Stellantis stands out among European automakers with €9.71 billion in Middle East and Africa revenue, though its shares have already fallen 11% since Friday's close. The region generated €1.36 billion in adjusted operating income with a 14% margin, making it one of the company's few profitable markets. This performance contrasts sharply with Stellantis' overall adjusted operating loss of €911 million for 2025.

Toyota leads international automakers in the region with 17% market share, followed by Hyundai at 10%, while Chinese manufacturers collectively absorbed 17% of China's total passenger vehicle exports in 2025. Bernstein warns the broader risk extends beyond direct sales, with prolonged conflict potentially driving up oil prices and undermining global consumer confidence, pressuring auto demand well beyond the Gulf.