Goldman Sachs says artificial intelligence could reshape property and casualty insurance, with commercial insurers better positioned than personal lines carriers to benefit. The firm upgraded American International Group to Buy, citing stronger earnings growth and improving return on equity compared to peers facing cyclical pressures. Analysts point to recent acquisitions boosting premium leverage and ongoing cost reductions.

Commercial insurers like Chubb and Marsh & McLennan are best placed to benefit because their business focuses on multinational and large corporate clients where complex risks reduce AI-driven disruption risks. Among brokers, Aon and Marsh appear well positioned as much of their revenue comes from complex insurance risks and specialized markets. Goldman sees these companies' sophisticated client relationships as a competitive advantage.

The bank downgraded Allstate to Neutral, citing mounting risks tied to policy distribution, affordability pressures, and longer-term uncertainty around technologies like autonomous vehicles. Personal lines insurers including Progressive appear less well positioned in Goldman's AI framework, though disruption is expected to develop gradually rather than immediately.