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Ferrovial 407 ETR Results Miss Targets, Shares Fall 1.3%

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Ferrovial's shares slipped 1.3% in early trading after its 407 ETR toll-road asset delivered fourth-quarter results below market expectations. The Toronto-based highway operator reported revenue of CAD479 million, up 9.4% year over year but missing the CAD503 million consensus estimate. EBITDA rose 9.2% to CAD404 million, also falling short of the expected CAD426 million.

Traffic growth moderated to 5.7% from 9.4% in the previous quarter, while average revenue per trip increased 7.1%. Despite the quarterly miss, Bank of America analyst Marcin Wojtal maintained a Buy rating with a €67 price target, citing the asset's long-duration nature and strong pricing power. He noted that a 25% tariff increase effective January 2026 should drive 23% EBITDA growth in 2026.

For context, the 407 ETR is one of North America's most profitable toll roads, generating CAD1.5 billion in dividends for fiscal 2025, up 36% year over year. While the quarterly results disappointed, BofA expects Ferrovial to continue leveraging the asset, supporting both valuation and the holding company's net cash position.