Getlink edges lower after mixed results, dividend boosted

Getlink (GETP) shares dipped 1% following second-half results that beat EBITDA expectations but fell short on free cash flow. The company reported €493 million in EBITDA, 4.9% above consensus, driven by Eurotunnel and ElecLink, the latter benefiting from a €50 million insurance one-off. EBITDA margins expanded to 57.6%, well above the 54.5% forecast. However, free cash flow missed estimates by 19%, landing at €156 million versus €193 million predicted. Revenue of €856 million aligned with market expectations.

The firm adjusted 2026 EBITDA guidance to €820-€860 million, a ~1% reduction from consensus, citing a tough year-over-year comparison after last year’s ElecLink insurance payout. Notably, Getlink announced a dividend of €0.80 per share in 2026, rising 5% annually to €1 by 2030—23% to 30% above current consensus estimates, per Jefferies analyst Graham Hunt. This move positions the stock at a ~4.5% yield. Hunt emphasized shareholder returns as the priority, though warned no buyback plans could disappoint some investors.

Longer-term, Getlink targets €1 billion EBITDA by 2030—2% above consensus—and aims to add 2.3 million high-speed rail passengers annually, 5% below market forecasts. RBC Capital Markets noted Eurotunnel’s performance will likely improve steadily, while ElecLink’s growth trajectory remains positive. The dividend hike signals confidence, but analysts caution the guidance cut reflects near-term headwinds. Investors should weigh these factors ahead of potential volatility.

Key takeaway: Getlink’s dividend upgrade offsets mixed financials, but softer guidance and cash flow concerns may temper enthusiasm. The 2030 EBITDA and passenger targets offer long-term optimism, though near-term execution risks linger.