In three decades of investing, China's WTO entry in 2001 and the Covid-19 pandemic stand out as the only events that truly mattered for market returns. Stuart Kirk, a portfolio manager, argues that geopolitical crises, interest rates, and even sky-high valuations have proven largely irrelevant to long-term investment performance.

Kirk recalls how the Asian and Russian crises of the late 1990s barely dented dotcom profits, while the financial crisis resolved in just 24 months with nearly all TARP funds repaid. Even the Eurozone debt crisis, which sparked panic over Greece and Spain, ultimately blew over as those countries now boom. The pattern repeats: Brexit, tariffs, and Ukraine have failed to smother returns as feared.

China's WTO admission transformed global economics, driving unprecedented commodity consumption and creating massive trade deficits that fueled Western debt. Meanwhile, Covid-19's impact remains unfolding, with $5 trillion in US relief spending creating unsustainable debt levels that could eventually destabilize bond markets. The pandemic also established a precedent for government bailouts that may prevent crucial welfare reforms.