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Should You Buy Stocks Now? Market Valuations vs. Iran War

Financial Times Markets •
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Financial Times columnist Stuart Kirk questions whether it's time to re-enter equity markets after recent volatility. He notes that while US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have only fallen 5-9% since geopolitical tensions escalated, valuations remain a concern. The author points out that professional investors often welcome crises as cover for poor performance.

Kirk examines regional markets, finding that Japan's Topix trades at 17.5 times forward earnings, still above its 10-year average. Meanwhile, UK and Asia-ex-Japan indices have dropped to around 13 times earnings, below their decade means. He highlights how crises rarely occur when valuations are low, suggesting investors use geopolitical events as excuses for market corrections that were inevitable due to overvaluation.

Despite cheaper valuations in emerging markets and Latin America, Kirk remains hesitant. He notes that Nasdaq's PE ratio is now a quarter below its peak, and the S&P 500 is near long-run averages. The author concludes that while valuations have improved, he's still on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals before re-entering the market.