UK arable farmers face a looming cash crisis as fertiliser prices surge due to the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, which has disrupted global supply chains. Farmers who grow grains are already under financial pressure from two consecutive years of poor harvests and a five-year low wheat price. Now production costs are set to soar, echoing the input cost crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

About 35 per cent of global urea exports and 45 per cent of sulphur exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where trade flows have nearly halted. Middle East urea prices have jumped from $485 to $650 per tonne, while European ammonia imports reached a three-year high of $750 per tonne. Nick Shorter, CEO of farm management firm Velcourt, warned that his urea supplier's prices have risen 14 per cent since February 24, with ammonium nitrate up 10 per cent.

Fertiliser represents the biggest input cost for arable farmers at 25 per cent of production costs, followed by fuel at 10 per cent. UK farmers will have to wait until next year to recoup higher costs when negotiating sales prices, potentially passing increases to consumers. Robert Chapman, an Aberdeenshire farmer, noted that farmers with stockpiled fertiliser could profit more from selling it than growing grain. The UK imports 100 per cent of its fertiliser, leaving the sector vulnerable to global supply disruptions.