Conflict in Iran is disrupting fertiliser production across the Middle East, threatening global food supplies and raising prices for essential crops. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 35% of global urea exports and 45% of sulphur exports, has become a chokepoint as vessels avoid the waterway amid regional tensions.

QatarEnergy has halted production at its Ras Laffan complex following a drone attack, while Iran has taken all ammonia production offline. Yara's CEO Svein Tore Holsether warned that without fertiliser reaching farmers, crop yields could drop by up to 50% in the first harvest. Natural gas prices, the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilisers, have doubled in Europe to over $20 per mmbtu.

Analysts say this disruption could prove more damaging than the 2022 Ukraine crisis, when Russian exports continued despite sanctions. Urea prices have jumped $130 to $575-650 per tonne in the Middle East, while European ammonia futures surged $130 to $725 per tonne. Food system expert Raj Patel estimates consumers could see higher bread prices within six to ten weeks, with egg and meat prices following in subsequent months.