Iran's attacks on shipping routes and energy infrastructure are triggering a fertilizer crisis that could cause a global food shock worse than 2022's, industry experts warn. Approximately half of the 2.1 million tonnes of urea, the world's most vital nitrogen fertilizer, scheduled for export over recent weeks has been disrupted. Over 1.1 million tonnes of fertilizer is currently stranded in the Gulf, including 570,000 tonnes of urea, according to Kpler data. Nitrogen fertilizers underpin roughly half of global food production. Prices have surged over 40% since the conflict began, pushing up costs for farmers worldwide. Unlike the 2022 crisis, this disruption is hitting multiple food system components simultaneously. Qatar's QAFCO shut its massive 5.6 million-tonne urea plant after Gulf LNG operations halted.

India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have cut fertilizer production due to gas shortages, threatening harvests of staples like rice. South Asia, heavily reliant on Gulf LNG imports for fertilizer production, is particularly vulnerable. Economists caution that higher food and fuel prices will hit consumers before harvest impacts are felt, potentially increasing global hunger. Restarting fertilizer plants can take weeks, and long-term shutdowns could permanently reduce supply.