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Team America: Yen Police Intervention

Financial Times Markets •
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Good morning. So much for a quiet summer. Unhedged readers have been lapping up Rob's ruminations on the Fed under Kevin Warsh, who has really got the macro watchers in a spin with his clear intention to say less. The latest curveball came on Friday when Colby Smith reported Warsh is considering cutting the number of Fed meetings altogether. That's one way of letting markets do the work for you: simply don't show up.

Speaking of curveballs, I teamed up with colleagues to bring this into the world on Friday night: Much to unpack here. It's all very weird. Typically, yen interventions work as follows. The currency gets too strong or too weak; authorities say it's about volatility, but markets have never bought that line. On prompt from the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan calls dealers to ask where they are on dollar-yen—code for 'knock it off.'

Now, the US has rolled up its sleeves to help, to a highly unusual degree. In January, the New York Fed did the 'rate check' usually the job of the BoJ. Now the Treasury has actually intervened in euros, days after Bessent said the yen seemed 'very undervalued.' Japan's finance minister confirmed this was a joint effort. The last obvious example was in 2011 after the earthquake when the G7 banded together to weaken the yen.

Where's the volatility? The decline in the yen against the dollar has been perfectly orderly. This is a readjustment, not a dislocation. Why is anyone intervening at all? What would really help the yen is a large rise in Japanese interest rates or a shift in the global macro picture that pulled down oil prices and US bond yields.