Investors await Friday's US employment data as markets assess whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates to contain inflation sparked by President Donald Trump's war in Iran. The Fed held rates steady at Wednesday's meeting, but Kevin Warsh's stripped-back communication during his first press conference as chair frustrated markets, spiking borrowing costs and volatility.

Bloomberg-poll economists expect 90,000 non-farm jobs added in July, continuing June's slow growth and supporting a wait-and-see stance on rate hikes. Citi economist Veronica Clark argues soft employment figures will refute tight labor market narratives and could lower the unemployment rate to 4.3 per cent, clearing the path for inflation-focused decisions.

Meanwhile, China's July trade figures offer insight into whether its trade surplus is peaking. ING economists expect imports to grow faster than exports, driven by global AI investment. The first half of 2026 saw a $576bn surplus, below 2025's $583bn, though gold imports suggest underlying growth when excluded. Analysts note sustainable change depends on Beijing's domestic demand support measures.