Project Vault, led by the US Export-Import Bank, aims to create a $12bn stockpile of 60 critical minerals to counter China’s supply chain dominance. Launched in the Oval Office, mining billionaire Robert Friedland called it “transformational,” with industry groups like Lockheed Martin and General Motors signing up. The program, which locks in prices for manufacturers during shortages, has sparked debate over its fiscal sustainability and market impact.

Mining executives warn the initiative risks distorting global commodities markets. Wheaton Precious Metals chair Randy Smallwood criticized stockpiling as “protectionist,” arguing it contradicts free-market principles. Others, like Antofagasta’s Iván Arriagada, noted potential price hikes, particularly for copper, which already faces record demand. A trader predicted “hoarding” behavior, while geopolitical tensions from the Iran war highlighted vulnerabilities in existing supply chains. The US seeks to reduce reliance on foreign sources, but the plan could ignite trade disputes, especially for scarce metals like germanium.

Trading houses including Mercuria and Glencore will procure and store the minerals, though operational details remain unclear. Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad called for transparency to avoid market overhangs. Meanwhile, the US government’s growing involvement in mining—through stakes in companies and partnerships—has drawn mixed reactions. Some executives welcome the focus on domestic security, while others advocate for streamlined permitting instead of stockpiling. The project’s success hinges on balancing strategic goals with market stability.

The initiative reflects broader global efforts, with the EU and Australia also building reserves. Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a source of gallium and germanium, is already in talks to supply Vault. As the US navigates this untested model, industry leaders stress the need for clear rules to prevent unintended consequences. “The free market works for a reason,” Smallwood reiterated, urging alternatives to government intervention.