President Donald Trump declared an end to the 106‑day Iran war on Sunday, prompting Brent to slip below $80 a barrel. The cease‑fire is interim, and industry leaders warn a full market reset will take months. Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned that restoring equilibrium could require “close to a year,” keeping price volatility high and reduced refinery cutbacks in Asia.

Tankers have begun “dark transits” through the Strait of Hormuz, but volumes remain a fraction of pre‑conflict traffic. Morgan Stanley strategist Martijn Rats says empty vessels must clear Gulf storage before laden ships can resume, while Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser stresses the fleet is “messed up” and will need weeks to re‑position. Roughly 10,000 of 36,000 regional wells stay idle.

Halliburton and SLB warned in April that a patchy restart will strain service crews, and Morgan Stanley projects only 50 % of Gulf output by September, rising to 80 % in December. Repair work on pipelines and LNG plants could stretch years, leaving strategic reserves depleted. Global oil stocks are now at a 43‑year low, making any further disruption a market shock.