Oil traders warned that the Iran‑Houthi war will scar markets for months, even if a peace deal soon reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures slipped just under $100 a barrel, far from the near‑$120 peak seen after the conflict erupted. Executives at Vitol, Gunvor and Mercuria told the FT Commodities summit that restoring normal flows will be a multi‑month effort.

The closure has erased roughly one billion barrels of supply, forcing traders to rewire the entire value chain. Gunvor’s research chief Frederic Lasserre estimated a three‑ to four‑month lag before crude volumes return to pre‑war levels, while super‑tankers now sit idle in the Atlantic, cutting the available fleet for Hormuz traffic. Prices could climb if the stalemate persists and logistics bottlenecks.

With refinery start‑ups delayed and regional output only half‑restored, inventories have been stripped, leaving no buffer for demand spikes this summer. Gunvor CEO Gary Pedersen likened the release of 100‑150 million barrels stuck in the Gulf to a strategic‑reserve dump, but once absorbed, the market will feel renewed upward pressure. The oil trade will remain volatile until full shipments resume.