Gulf oil producers face a critical race to resume exports before storage tanks reach capacity, with Saudi Arabia estimated to have only two weeks before production cuts become necessary. Iraq became the first major exporter to reduce output on Tuesday, shutting down production at three of its largest oilfields as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

A senior oil trader estimates Iraq has already lost more than 2 million barrels per day, with another 1.5 million b/d at risk within days. Kuwait faces imminent shutdowns, potentially losing 1.5 million barrels in the next three days, followed by the UAE and eventually Saudi Arabia within 15 days. Satellite imagery shows Saudi Arabia's Juaymah terminal quickly running out of spare capacity.

Major production shutdowns could trigger another surge in oil prices, which have already climbed sharply since hostilities began. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate over 3 million barrels will be taken offline by Sunday, rising to nearly 5 million if the conflict lasts two and a half weeks. The cost of shutting down fields like Iraq's Rumaila field is substantial - approximately $2.4 billion in monthly gross revenue losses. While the oil market stabilized Wednesday with Brent crude flat at $81 a barrel, traders await clarity on conflict duration and potential mobilization of strategic reserves.