Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil
US stocks slumped to end a volatile week, with soaring oil prices and the specter of energy supply shocks from the war in the Middle East fanning inflation fears, and a surprise decline in US jobs stopping the bleed. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% in its worst week since June as traders rushed to exits amid mounting concerns over the Iran conflict's economic fallout.
Oil Shock
Crude prices in Europe are now surging as aggressive buying by Asian refiners tightens the global market, following an initial muted reaction to the Middle East war. Oil prices could spike over $200 a barrel if the conflict continues to escalate, according to Bloomberg Opinion's Javier Blas, while Janet Rilling warns that "$100 oil would be a concern" for fixed income markets.
Private Credit Crisis
BlackRock curbed withdrawals from one of its biggest private credit funds after concerns about exposure to troubled assets swelled. Blue Owl has a £36 million exposure to Century Capital Partners, a London-based property lender that filed for administration last month, while Western Alliance plunged after suing Jefferies over $126 million in loans linked to First Brands.
Bond Market Jitters
Treasuries pared their biggest weekly loss since April as a surprisingly weak US jobs report and surging oil prices complicate the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Goldman Sachs says insurer bond moves on private credit are "overdone," while Pimco warns that private debt should face a "full-blown default cycle" after years of loosened underwriting standards.
Energy Infrastructure
Qatar has loaded its first LNG cargoes since declaring force majeure, with satellite analysis showing its main export facility remains largely intact despite recent drone strikes. Saudi Arabia is increasing diplomatic efforts with Iran to contain the conflict, while Kuwait cuts oil output as storage fills up amid regional uncertainty.
Corporate Moves
Servier will buy Day One for $2.5 billion, expanding its oncology portfolio with a 68% premium to the closing price. Diana Shipping increased its offer to acquire Genco after Star Bulk Carriers agreed to purchase 16 of Genco's vessels if the acquisition closes. Chobani expects over $1 billion in 2026 earnings as the Greek yogurt maker plans heavy investment in growth.
Airline Industry Under Pressure
US airline stocks are set to slip into a bear market as Wall Street warns that the war in the Middle East threatens to dramatically squeeze their profits by driving up fuel costs. Boeing is reportedly nearing a 500-aircraft deal with China ahead of Trump's visit, potentially providing some relief to the struggling aerospace giant.
Regulatory & Market Structure
The New York Stock Exchange agreed to pay $9 million to settle SEC allegations that an internal malfunction led to a botched market open and wild price swings. The SEC is pushing back against 5x leveraged ETFs, while SpaceX stake surges are raising doubts about private assets in ETFs as a modest investment thrust a niche fund into the limelight.
Regional Markets
Israel's stocks and currency are rallying after almost a week of war with Iran, even as markets elsewhere retreat amid soaring energy prices. Colombia's local debt turned from worst performer to leading gainer as higher oil prices driven by the Iran war sparked a rally, converting the price of its main export commodity.
Labor Market Concerns
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking one of the biggest declines since the pandemic and raising concerns about the labor market's health. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says the Iran war is "unlikely to cause sustained inflation," while Fed's Daly says weak jobs data raises labor market concerns that could delay rate cuts.
Precious Metals & Safe Havens
Gold wagers hit a 16-week high as risk-off sentiment grew amid Middle East turmoil. The dollar is wrapping up its best week in more than a year, rallying as the ultimate safe haven amid the conflict in the Middle East and skyrocketing oil prices, while gilt yields sold off sharply on fears of inflation from the Iran war.