Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 8, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Energy and Commodity Markets

Renewed strikes in the Middle East sent crude oil prices jumping sharply, with futures trading higher amid fears of renewed supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, 92. The US military operation came hours after the Treasury Department revoked a waiver allowing global sales of Iranian oil, 91. This escalation also lifted soybean oil futures to a three-week high, as higher crude prices increased the prospect of greater demand for biofuel feedstocks. The FTSE 100 index was also poised for a fall on the back of heightened Middle East tensions. Iran-US tensions mean volatility will likely continue, forcing markets to readjust. The conflict’s impact on oil prices is complicating the outlook for inflation and interest rates, with bonds across most of Asia falling . Banks are exploring a deal to shake up the payments world, potentially allowing for larger transaction fees but risking backlash. Exxon Mobil reported a second-quarter earnings surge of nearly $4 billion, benefiting from the war-driven oil rally. Russian oil flows reached new highs, but slumping prices are crushing income, with Urals prices back to pre-campaign levels against Iran.

AI and Tech Sector Grapple with Volatility and Rotation

The artificial intelligence trade is experiencing significant volatility, with investors pulling money from chipmakers that powered this year's rally and seeking cheaper avenues into the technology boom. Tech stocks, particularly chipmakers, have seen a downturn following Samsung Electronics' earnings report, raising concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven bull market. US technology futures declined in early European trade as AI-related stocks weakened. Some market watchers are puzzled by the stalled share performance of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company, despite considerable Wall Street interest. SpaceX shares stumbled in their Nasdaq-100 debut, falling below their opening price amidst a broader tech slump. However, some segments of the AI market are seeing bullish calls, with DeepSeek reportedly developing its own chips, boosting confidence in local AI model makers . The US is also focused on AI distillation as a key factor in its race with China, with American companies complaining of unfair copying of their AI systems by Chinese competitors. Europe, meanwhile, is enjoying a breakout moment from a global rotation out of technology stocks, but its immunity to cracks in the AI trade is uncertain. Ireland's technology sector is facing AI-driven job disruption, with some roles being cut due to efficiency gains .

Asian Markets See Mixed Performance Amid Global Shifts

Chinese stocks in Hong Kong surged the most in 14 months as technology stocks rallied, driven by investor rotation into less crowded global market segments and local AI model makers developing their own chips. A gauge of demand for China’s benchmark sovereign bonds reached an all-time high, indicating strong appetite for these securities. China has also extended its purchasing of US soybeans, a trend that is accelerating agricultural trade between the two largest economies. The US dollar is expected to remain rangebound against the Chinese yuan in the near term, according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, South Korea's stock market experienced a significant rotation, with investors shifting away from chipmakers. Japan’s borrowing costs have reached a 30-year high due to concerns over long-term spending plans . Hedge funds have become the most negative on the Japanese yen since 2007, with the currency trading near its weakest level in four decades. Singapore and Hong Kong Host Major IPOs Amidst Market Appetites

Minor Food, the operator of Burger King restaurants, is planning a Singapore listing that could raise as much as $310 million, potentially marking one of the largest food-and-beverage listings in the city-state in nearly two decades . Also in Singapore, Foundation Healthcare Holdings is set to trade after its initial public offering, which was the largest of the year so far outside of real estate investment trusts . In Hong Kong, GM-backed Momenta, a Chinese autonomous driving company, is making its debut after raising $752 million in an IPO, testing market appetite for such ventures. Despite a 2.8% rise from its IPO price, shares are trading amidst caution regarding the profitability of the self-driving auto industry .

Fixed Income Markets React to Inflation and Geopolitical Fears

Asia-Pacific government bonds generally fell in price terms as crude oil prices rose. Japanese government bonds mirrored overnight gains in U.S. Treasurys as traders priced in a September Fed rate cut. However, concerns over long-term spending plans have pushed Japanese borrowing costs to their highest level since 1996. The renewed Middle East tensions and fears of energy supply disruptions are complicating the outlook for inflation and interest rates, causing bonds to retreat across much of Asia. The Iran crisis is also undermining the Bank of England's quantitative tightening program, prompting a rethink of its strategy.

Corporate Dealmaking and Listings Show Varied Fortunes

Burger King restaurant operator is planning a significant IPO in Singapore, aiming to raise up to $310 million. In Hong Kong, GM-backed Momenta, an autonomous driving firm, launched its IPO after raising $752 million, though its debut was muted amid industry-wide valuation concerns. Coty will transfer its Gucci Beauty license back to Kering for $400 million, with Kering then licensing the brand to L’Oréal for 50 years starting mid-2027. Novartis is set to acquire a UK biotech firm for $1.5 billion. In the US, Brookfield's data center firm is seeking to raise as much as $1.35 billion in an IPO. The US Department of Defense is actively purchasing lithium for strategic stockpiles to mitigate supply risks for critical minerals .

UK Markets Face IPO Drought Amidst Takeover Activity

The UK's initial public offering market continues to struggle, with bids for listed companies valued at nearly £60 billion, while the combined market value of new entrants this year stands at only £2.2 billion. This disparity highlights a significant IPO drought on the London Stock Exchange, where the value of bids for companies is 27 times greater than the value of new listings. Nest, a UK pension fund, plans a £1 billion venture capital push for UK pension savers, aligning with government and City of London efforts to increase private market allocations.

Indonesia and Turkey on Watchlists for Market Reclassification

Indonesia's stock market has received a second downgrade warning, with S&P Dow Jones Indices following MSCI in placing the Southeast Asian market on a watchlist for reclassification to 'frontier' market status. Similarly, S&P Dow Jones Indices has placed Turkey on a watchlist for a potential downgrade to frontier-market status, joining MSCI Inc. in issuing such warnings. These potential reclassifications indicate growing concerns about the stability and liquidity of these markets.

US Defense and Critical Minerals Focus Intensifies

The US Department of Defense is increasing its acquisition of lithium for strategic stockpiles, underscoring efforts to reduce supply risks for critical minerals essential to national security. Meanwhile, US rare earth minerals are flowing to Asia as domestic demand remains slow to emerge, despite government initiatives to develop domestic supply chains. This situation highlights a potential vulnerability in the US industrial resolve regarding critical materials.

Private Aviation and Shipping Face Supply Chain Pressures

Private jet operators are on high alert for potential fuel shortages this summer, with charter groups concerned that suppliers may prioritize airlines if supplies become constrained. In shipping, Maersk is set to send its first cargo through the Suez Canal since the start of the Iran war, a move that could lead to shorter delivery times but potentially lower freight rates. Trucking capacity is being strained, with Kuehne+Nagel's CEO stating that lorries cannot replace the Strait of Hormuz waterway due to costs and congestion.

India's Equity Rally Faces Headwinds Amidst Global Instability

India's equity rally, which had been broadening and attracting foreign investment, is now facing challenges due to renewed US-Iran strikes. The geopolitical tensions and resulting oil price increases are creating headwinds for the Indian market.

AI Concerns Cast Shadow Over Profitability and Job Markets

Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok warned that companies outside the major technology giants are not demonstrating profitability gains from their investments in artificial intelligence, posing a risk to stalled margins. This concern extends to the job market, where Ireland's technology sector, which previously benefited from a boom in roles after attracting US multinationals, is now seeing some positions cut in the name of AI efficiency. The immediate arrival of answers through AI, transforming a meandering journey into an immediate destination, is raising questions about its impact on human cognition.

Mexico Detains Former Pemex CEO Amidst Energy Sector Scrutiny

Victor Rodríguez, the former CEO of Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex, has been detained by authorities in Mexico City. This development comes amidst ongoing scrutiny of the energy sector.

US Grocers Face White House Pressure on Beef Prices

The White House is exerting pressure on top US grocers, including Walmart, Kroger, and Albertsons, to address beef prices. An Agriculture Department official met with these retailers to discuss the issue.

De Beers Implements Significant Diamond Price Cuts Amidst Buyer Shrinkage

De Beers has enacted some of its deepest official diamond price cuts in history, signaling a potential end to its long-standing strategy of maintaining prices well above market rates. This move comes as the pool of buyers for its diamonds continues to shrink.

US Natural Gas Futures Remain Rangebound as Market Eyes Summer Demand

U.S. natural gas futures held steady in early trading, with the market focused on summer weather patterns and power-sector consumption.

China's Industrial Overcapacity Echoes Past Reforms

China's manufacturing glut has revived memories of sweeping reforms enacted under former Premier Zhu Rongji, suggesting a need for similar decisive action to address industrial excess.

Hungary Returns to International Bond Market with €3 Billion Issuance

Hungary successfully sold €3 billion ($3.4 in its first international bond issuance since the April election that led to Viktor Orban's ouster and a subsequent drop in borrowing costs.

Japan's Inpex Secures Long-Term LNG Deal

Japan's state-backed Inpex Corp. has signed a 15-year deal with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. to purchase liquefied natural gas from a